Individuals with mild to moderately decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR=30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2) are considered at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). No studies have compared this risk in eGFR=30-59, diabetes mellitus (DM), and coronary heart disease (CHD) in regions with a low incidence of CHD.

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 122 443 individuals aged 60-84 years from a region with a low CHD incidence with creatinine measured between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2011. We identified hospital admissions due to CHD (myocardial infarction, angina) or CVD (CHD, stroke, or transient ischemic attack) from electronic medical records up to December 31, 2013. We estimated incidence rates and Cox regression adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) including competing risks in patients with eGFR=30-59, DM and CHD, or combinations, compared with individuals without these diseases.

The median follow-up was 38.3 [IQR, 33.8-42.7] months. Adjusted sHR for CHD in individuals with eGFR=30-59, DM, eGFR=30-59 plus DM, previous CHD, CHD plus DM, and CHD plus eGFR=30-59 plus DM, were 1.34 (95%CI, 1.04-1.74), 1.61 (95%CI, 1.36-1.90), 1.96 (95%CI, 1.42-2.70), 4.33 (95%CI, 3.58-5.25), 7.05 (5.80-8.58) and 7.72 (5.72-10.41), respectively. The corresponding sHR for CVD were 1.25 (95%CI, 1.06-1.46), 1.56 (95%CI, 1.41-1.74), 1.83 (95%CI, 1.50-2.23), 2.86 (95%CI, 2.48-3.29), 4.54 (95%CI, 3.93-5.24), and 5.33 (95%CI, 4.31-6.60).

In 60- to 84-year-olds with eGFR=30-59, similarly to DM, the likelihood of being admitted to hospital for CHD and CVD was about half that of individuals with established CHD. Thus, eGFR=30-59 does not appear to be a coronary-risk equivalent. Individuals with CHD and DM, or eGFR=30-59 plus DM, should be prioritized for more intensive risk management.