Clinical decision-making on anticoagulation in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) requires clinicians to consider not only the incidence of embolic and bleeding events, but also the risk of death following these adverse events. We aimed to analyze the trade-off between embolic and bleeding events with respect to mortality in elderly patients with AF.

The study cohort comprised all patients aged ≥ 75 years from a Spanish health area diagnosed with AF between 2014 and 2017 (n=9365). The risk of death was investigated using Cox proportional hazards models, including embolic and bleeding events as time-dependent binary indicators.

During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, both embolic and bleeding events were associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR, 2.39; 95%CI, 2.12-2.69; and adjusted HR, 1.79; 95%CI, 1.64-1.96, respectively). The relative risk of death was 33% higher following an embolism than following a bleeding event (rRR, 1.33; 95%CI, 1.15-1.55), although for transient ischemic attack the risk was lower than for bleeding (rRR, 0.79; 95%CI, 0.63-0.99). The risk of death associated with intracranial hemorrhage was similar to that of major embolisms (RR, 1.00; 95%CI, 0.75-1.29).

In elderly AF patients, embolic events appeared to be associated with a higher risk of mortality than extracranial bleeding, except for transient ischemic attacks, which have a better prognosis. For ICH, the mortality risk was similar to that of major embolism.